"Сегодня в Великобритании на водородном фронте: правительство выпустило обновленную версию своей водородной стратегии,
отменив испытание Redcar Hydrogen Village и одобрило смешивание водорода в газовой системе.
Первое — это
хорошая новость, полностью соответствующая тому, что диктуют наука, техника и экономика, а второе… нет.
Решение Redcar наносит почти
смертельный удар по водородному отоплению в Великобритании и
выбивает почву из-под ног любой идеи, что мы будем переходить к водородной экономике, а не просто использовать чистый водород в нескольких промышленных целях, возможно, для судоходства и авиационного топлива, а также для долгосрочной балансировки энергосистемы.
Это также означает, что дебаты о том, как вывести из эксплуатации наши газораспределительные сети – и как за это платить – вот-вот выйдут на первые полосы газет. Добавление водорода в газовую систему – одно из самых
глупых политических решений, которые я видел за последние 20 лет.
Обычно я не отвечаю на правительственные консультации, но в этот раз я ответил. Аргументы в пользу этого настолько слабы, а затраты настолько велики, что я почувствовал себя обязанным.
Некоторые из них преподносятся как огромная победа газовой промышленности – рождественские подарки под елкой, по словам директора по стратегии Cadent доктора Анжелы Нидл в программе BBC 4 Today сегодня утром, но на самом деле это больше похоже на несколько безделушек.
Redcar наносит смертельный удар по водородному отоплению.
Это началось в 2018 году, когда правительство инициировало программу под названием Hy4Heat, запустив десять рабочих пакетов для изучения того, что потребуется для перевода домов на использование 100% водорода, точно так же, как в 1970-х годах наши дома были переведены на использование природного газа.
С тех пор это был долгий и извилистый путь, основными движущими силами которого были британские газовые сетевые компании – Cadent, NGN, SGN и Wales & West Utilities.
Поскольку водородные автомобили исчезают в зеркале заднего вида среди электромобилей, они знают, что водородное отопление —
последний шанс для их газораспределительных активов. Ничто не прояснило это более ясно, чем заявление Национальной комиссии по инфраструктуре Великобритании о том, что газораспределительные сети должны быть выведены из эксплуатации к 2050 году, если страна хочет достичь юридически обязывающей цели по декарбонизации к 2050 году. Газораспределительные компании повесили все на водород, финансирование исследований и лоббирование, включая выплаты в пользу Energy Utilities Alliance, чей генеральный директор Майк Фостер недавно был пойман на финансировании пиар-кампании, призванной «вызвать возмущение» по поводу тепловых насосов. У них нет плана Б: долгосрочный план ресурсов NGN содержит 73 упоминания слова «водород», но ни одного слова «тепловой насос» или «централизованное отопление» — первое представляет собой самую большую угрозу для их бизнеса, а второе — единственную. возможность вести бизнес в долгосрочной перспективе.
Правила, касающиеся газораспределительных компаний, означают, что, если они смогут убедить Ofgem продолжать добавлять инвестиции, которые они делают, в свою регулируемую базу активов, они могут получать от них фиксированную прибыль на срок до 45 лет – это до 2068 года. Когда правительство в конце концов скажет им, что игра окончена и их трубы должны быть выведены из эксплуатации, они потребуют компенсацию не только за свои инвестиции, но и за упущенную прибыль. Их план, очевидно, состоит в том, чтобы продолжать инвестировать как можно дольше, поэтому для них так важно поддерживать симулякр будущего водородного отопления, даже когда реального его не существует"
...то есть - ищем , кому _ выгодно.
Чьи уши торчат
"Mixed news today in the UK on the hydrogen front – the Government has issued an
update to its hydrogen strategy cancelling the Redcar Hydrogen Village Trial and approved hydrogen blending into the gas system. The first is good news, fully in line with what science, engineering and economics would dictate – the second is… not.
The Redcar decision deals a near-killer blow to hydrogen heating in the UK and kicks the legs out from under any idea that we will be moving to a hydrogen economy, as opposed to just using clean hydrogen in a few industrial applications, perhaps for shipping and aviation fuels, and in long-duration grid balancing. It also means that the debate on how to decommission our gas distribution networks – and how to pay for it – is about to hit the front pages.
Blending hydrogen into the gas system is one of the daftest policy decisions I have seen in 20 years doing this. I don’t usually respond to government consultations, but on this one I did. The arguments for it are so weak, the costs so immense, that I felt compelled.
There were a bunch of other hydrogen-related decisions, most of them relating to producing some of the stuff (albeit on a tiny but expensive scale) and getting it to industrial users, and therefore fairly sensible. Some of it is being spun as a huge win for the gas industry – Christmas presents under their tree, according to Cadent’s Director of Strategy Dr Angela Needle on the BBC 4 Today Programme this morning, but in reality it is more like a few baubles.
Redcar deals killer blow to hydrogen heating
First, the Redcar Village Trial. This dates back to 2018, when the Government initiated a programme called Hy4Heat, kicking
ten work packages to investigate what would be needed in order to switch homes over to using 100% hydrogen, in the same way that in the 1970s our homes were switched over from town gas to natural gas after the latter was discovered in the North Sea.
It has been a long and winding road since then, with the main pushers being the UK’s gas network companies – Cadent, NGN, SGN and Wales & West Utilities. With hydrogen cars receding in the rear-view mirror of EVs, they know that hydrogen heating is the last chance saloon for their gas distribution assets. Nothing brought this home more clearly than the statement by the UK’s National Infrastructure Commission that the gas distribution networks need to be decommissioned by 2050 if the country is to meet its legally-binding 2050 decarbonization target
The gas distribution companies have hung everything on hydrogen, funding research and lobbying, including paying into the Energy Utilities Alliance, whose CEO Mike Foster was recently
caught funding a PR campaign designed to “spark outrage” about heat pumps. They have no plan B:
NGN’s Long-Term Resource Plan contains 73 mentions of the word hydrogen, but not one of the words “heat pump” or “district heating” – the first the biggest threat to their business, and the second the only opportunity to have a business in the long term.
The regulations around gas distribution utilities mean that if they can persuade Ofgem to keep adding investments they make to their regulated asset base, they can earn a fixed return on it for up to 45 years – that’s out to 2068. When the government eventually tells them the game is up and their pipes have to be decommissioned, they will demand compensation not just for their investment, but for foregone profits. Their plan is clearly to keep investing for as long as possible, which is why it is so important for them to maintain the simulacrum of a hydrogen heating future even when a real one does not exist.
That is why two more developments this week were also significant. First the government kicked a
consultation on the Future Homes and Buildings Standard, which stated that:
“We found no practical way to allow the installation of fossil fuel boilers while also delivering significant carbon savings and ‘zero-carbon ready’ homes. As such, we do not expect fossil fuel heating, such as gas, hybrid heat pumps and hydrogen-ready boilers, will meet these standards.”
At the same time, Ofgem kicked
consultation on the RIIO-3 Sector Specific Methodology for the Gas Distribution, Gas Transmission and Electricity Transmission Sectors, which will govern the way gas networks are regulated (and paid for) from 2026 through to 2035. It may sound like a dry exercise but it is anything but – it will throw fuel on the fire of the national debate about decommissioning the networks, started by this year’s National Infrastructure Review. It says what has until now been the quiet part out loud:
If there is a limited or no role for hydrogen in domestic heating then a higher proportion of the gas network will need to be decommissioned.
Buried in the finance annex of the consultation document is this bombshell:
“It may be appropriate to create a mechanism in RIIO-3 to pre-fund future decommissioning liabilities and spread the burden of this expected future expense over current and future generations of consumers. The introduction of such a charge would put further upward pressure on current network charges within consumer bills
…adjustment of the profile so that the GD RAV [Gas Distribution Regulated Asset Value] is fully depreciated by 2050 would increase bills by a total of £43 (or 37
per annum.”
So the cancellation of the Redcar Hydrogen Village Trial means the country is rapidly approaching an inflection point. It is becoming very hard to pretend that the gas distribution networks have a future beyond 2050, and we need to start planning – and funding – their decommissioning.
The government says it will make a final decision on hydrogen in 2026, and the gas companies’ hopes now hang on a
small and faltering trial in Fife, where SGN is hoping to put hydrogen through new pipes into 300 homes. It says 270 households have signed up, but let’s see what happens as homeowners realise what that means in terms of fabric changes to their homes, safety, air quality and so on.
A final word on this, about my own role. In cancelling the Redcar trial, the government said it was “due to issues in obtaining a robust, local hydrogen supply”. Of course it wasn’t – it was because the local residents had finally woken up to what was about to be done to them, and
started to protest, very vocally.
I was so appalled at the misinformation being spread first by Cadent and then by NGN in their efforts to bounce the residents of Ellesmere Port and then Redcar into supporting the trials, that I made myself available as an expert to the local community. It has been an utter pleasure working with them, and I have learned more about democracy, decency and communication from then than they can possibly have learned about hydrogen from me.
Along the way I have been accused by the gas companies, local councillors and MPs of spreading misinformation and untruths. None of them have ever pointed to a single inaccurate statement I have made. If they ever do, I will happily issue a correction and an apology. You can
watch my appearance at a public meeting in Ellesmere Port here, and read
my write-up of NGN’s constantly-changing narratives about safety here (the bonus is that you'll get a sneak peak of the big project I am about to launch - my Substack,
The Thoughts of Chairman Michael).
And if any of the C-suite of those gas network companies ever want to come on Cleaning Up and explain their positions, I will happily and courteously host them.
The foolishness of blending
Blending is one of the most foolish ideas we have seen in decades in the energy policy aren. As mentioned, I don’t usually respond to government consultations, but on this one I did. The arguments for it are so weak, the costs so immense, that I felt compelled.
For those interested in my logic, you can
follow this link to a copy of my consultation response (and get another sneak peak of the big project I am about to launch - my Substack,
The Thoughts of Chairman Michael)."
...оригинал со ссылками
_large.png "РЖД получит 12 российских улучшенных аналогов «Ласточек» в этом году и ещё 20 — в следующем")
